Source : Procurement Leaders
Moves to transfer to green energy sources could increase demand for the rare earths dysprosium and neodymium by 600-2,600% over the next 25 years creating a potential shortage, a new study has warned.
The report, which was published in the American Chemical Society journal Environmental Science & Technology, points out that production of the two metals — available almost exclusively in China — has been increasing by only a few percentage points per year.
Randolph E. Kirchain and colleagues explain that dysprosium and neodymium, are critical for current technologies for manufacturing wind turbines that generate electricity and electric vehicles. Those green technologies, Kirchain notes, would be essential in carrying out a proposed stabilisation in atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, at 450 parts per million.
Kirchain’s team analysed the supply of lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, samarium, europium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium and yttrium under various scenarios.
They projected the demand for these 10 rare earth elements through 2035. In one scenario, demand for dysprosium and neodymium could be higher than 2,600 and 700% respectively.
To meet that need, production of dysprosium would have to grow each year at nearly twice the historic growth rate for rare earth supplies.
"Although the RE [rare earth] supply base has demonstrated an impressive ability to expand over recent history, even the RE industry may struggle to keep up with that pace of demand growth," the authors said.
But they also point out that shortfalls in future supply could be mitigated "through materials substitution, improved efficiency, and the increased reuse, recycling, and use of scrap."